Jagiellonia II vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm.: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 1Group I - 15Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok, Białystok
The Footlab model makes Jagiellonia II the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Polonia Lidzbark Warm.. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jagiellonia II vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm.?
Jagiellonia II starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,775 vs 1,666).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jagiellonia II have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Polonia Lidzbark Warm. have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Weszlo(away) | 0-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Pelikan Łowicz(home) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Warta Sieradz(away) | 2-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wigry Suwałki(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki(away) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Widzew II(away) | 1-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Olimpia Zambrów(home) | 2-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Wisła Płock II(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Olimpia Elbląg(away) | 2-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Swit(home) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Jagiellonia II win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2025 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 0-3 Jagiellonia II | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Jagiellonia II 4-1 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | III Liga - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Polonia Lidzbark Warm. vs Jagiellonia II on May 24, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Jagiellonia II score 1.6 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Polonia Lidzbark Warm. score 1.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia II | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jagiellonia II sit 10th in III Liga - Group 1 (8 points from 5 matches) and Polonia Lidzbark Warm. sit 16th (1 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jagiellonia II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| 16 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jagiellonia II vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm.?
- The Footlab model makes Jagiellonia II the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Polonia Lidzbark Warm..
- Where and when is Jagiellonia II vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. played?
- Jagiellonia II vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. is played on October 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok, in the III Liga - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 31, 2026Pelikan ŁowiczvsWisła Płock II
- Oct 31, 2026Lechia T. MazowieckivsWigry Suwałki
- Oct 31, 2026ŁKS Łódź IIvsOlimpia Zambrów
- Oct 31, 2026Mławianka MławavsWidzew II
- Oct 31, 2026ŁomżavsMazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
- Oct 31, 2026TroszynvsOlimpia Elbląg
- Oct 31, 2026Ząbkovia ZąbkivsSwit
- Oct 31, 2026WeszlovsWarta Sieradz