Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Enea Stadion, Poznań
The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 78%, against 14% for a draw and 8% for Radomiak Radom. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Lech Poznan starts as the favourite with a 243-point Elo edge (2,141 vs 1,899).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lech Poznan have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Radomiak Radom have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Thun(home) | 7-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(home) | 3-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wieczysta Kraków(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Zaglebie Lubin(home) | 0-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Legia Warszawa(away) | 0-5 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 9, 2026 | AEL(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze(home) | 1-3 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GKS Katowice(away) | 1-3 | Ekstraklasa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Lech Poznan win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Radomiak Radom win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Radomiak Radom 1-3 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Lech Poznan 4-1 Radomiak Radom | Ekstraklasa |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Radomiak Radom 2-2 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Lech Poznan 2-1 Radomiak Radom | Ekstraklasa |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Radomiak Radom 2-2 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 30, 2023 | Lech Poznan 2-0 Radomiak Radom | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lech Poznan score 2.6 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Radomiak Radom score 1.2 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | 2.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Radomiak Radom | 1.2 | 2.0 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lech Poznan sit 4th in Ekstraklasa (7 points from 3 matches) and Radomiak Radom sit 16th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 16 | Radomiak Radom | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
- The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 78%, against 14% for a draw and 8% for Radomiak Radom.
- Where and when is Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom played?
- Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom is played on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Enea Stadion, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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