Where and when is Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze played?

Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze is played on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Motor Lublin Arena, in the Ekstraklasa.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze: prediction and stats

EkstraklasaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin

Motor Lublin

Gornik Zabrze

The Footlab model makes Motor Lublin the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Gornik Zabrze. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze?

Gornik Zabrze starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (2,037 vs 1,930).

Motor Lublin win39 %

Draw27 %

Gornik Zabrze win34 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motor Lublin have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Gornik Zabrze have 6, 3 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Motor Lublin
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Korona Kielce(away)	1-1	Ekstraklasa
Aug 16, 2026	GKS Katowice(home)	1-0	Ekstraklasa
Aug 8, 2026	Pogon Szczecin(away)	1-3	Ekstraklasa
Jul 31, 2026	Jagiellonia(home)	1-2	Ekstraklasa
Jul 26, 2026	Widzew Łódź(away)	2-2	Ekstraklasa

Gornik Zabrze
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 20, 2026	Monaco(home)	2-3	UEFA Europa Conference League
Aug 16, 2026	Wisla Krakow(home)	2-1	Ekstraklasa
Aug 13, 2026	Ferencvarosi TC(home)	1-1	UEFA Europa League
Aug 8, 2026	Radomiak Radom(away)	3-1	Ekstraklasa
Aug 5, 2026	Ferencvarosi TC(away)	0-1	UEFA Europa League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Motor Lublin win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Gornik Zabrze win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 8, 2026	Motor Lublin 0-0 Gornik Zabrze	Ekstraklasa
Aug 30, 2025	Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Motor Lublin	Ekstraklasa
Mar 15, 2025	Gornik Zabrze 4-0 Motor Lublin	Ekstraklasa
Sep 13, 2024	Motor Lublin 1-0 Gornik Zabrze	Ekstraklasa

Last archived meeting: Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze on Mar 8, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Motor Lublin score 1.4 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Gornik Zabrze score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Motor Lublin	1.4	1.6	3	9/15	8/15
Gornik Zabrze	1.6	1.3	2	10/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Motor Lublin sit 13th in Ekstraklasa (5 points from 5 matches) and Gornik Zabrze sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Gornik Zabrze	3	3	0	0	7	3	9
13	Motor Lublin	5	1	2	2	6	8	5

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze?: The Footlab model makes Motor Lublin the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Gornik Zabrze.
Where and when is Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze played?: Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze is played on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Motor Lublin Arena, in the Ekstraklasa.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.