Jagiellonia vs Lyon: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa LeagueLeague Stage - 7Kick-off on January 21, 2027 at 05:45 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Białystok
The Footlab AI model makes Lyon the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Jagiellonia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lyon wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 3,018 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jagiellonia vs Lyon?
Lyon starts as the favourite with a 182-point Elo edge (2,172 vs 1,990).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Jagiellonia vs Lyon
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Jagiellonia
4-4-2- 11Jesús Imaz
- 30O. Sow
- 7K. Szmyt
- 19A. Klynge
- 6T. Romanczuk
- 72K. Jóźwiak
- 5Bernardo Vital
- 4Y. Kobayashi
- 27Rodrigo Conceição
- 20B. Wdowik
- 50S. Abramowicz
Lyon
4-2-3-1- 11Keito Nakamura
- 99N. Nartey
- 23T. Morton
- 8C. Tolisso
- 7E. Nuamah
- 2M. Bidstrup
- 13Z. Athekame
- 16Abner
- 20F. Bacher
- 21R. Kluivert
- 1D. Greif
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 08:27 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jagiellonia have 6 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; Lyon have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Zaglebie Lubin(away) | 0-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze(home) | 1-3 | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Polonia Warszawa(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Suduva Marijampole(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Nice(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Lens(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Anderlecht(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
How many goals should we expect?
Jagiellonia score 1.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lyon score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Lyon | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jagiellonia sit 20th in UEFA Europa League (3 points from 2 matches) and Lyon sit 11th (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lyon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 20 | Jagiellonia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
A question about Jagiellonia vs Lyon?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jagiellonia vs Lyon?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lyon the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Jagiellonia.
- Where and when is Jagiellonia vs Lyon played?
- Jagiellonia vs Lyon is played on January 21, 2027 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the UEFA Europa League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.