Where and when is Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin played?

Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin is played on January 30, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the Ekstraklasa.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin: prediction and stats

EkstraklasaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Białystok

Jagiellonia

Motor Lublin

The Footlab model makes Jagiellonia the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Motor Lublin. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin?

Jagiellonia starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (2,060 vs 1,934).

Jagiellonia win58 %

Draw23 %

Motor Lublin win20 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jagiellonia have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Motor Lublin have 4, 5 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Jagiellonia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 20, 2026	Saburtalo(home)	4-0	UEFA Europa League
Aug 13, 2026	Rangers(away)	1-1	UEFA Europa League
Aug 9, 2026	Widzew Łódź(home)	0-2	Ekstraklasa
Aug 6, 2026	Rangers(home)	2-1	UEFA Europa League
Jul 31, 2026	Motor Lublin(away)	2-1	Ekstraklasa

Motor Lublin
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Korona Kielce(away)	1-1	Ekstraklasa
Aug 16, 2026	GKS Katowice(home)	1-0	Ekstraklasa
Aug 8, 2026	Pogon Szczecin(away)	1-3	Ekstraklasa
Jul 31, 2026	Jagiellonia(home)	1-2	Ekstraklasa
Jul 26, 2026	Widzew Łódź(away)	2-2	Ekstraklasa

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Jagiellonia win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Motor Lublin win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 31, 2026	Motor Lublin 1-2 Jagiellonia	Ekstraklasa
Feb 7, 2026	Jagiellonia 4-1 Motor Lublin	Ekstraklasa
Dec 14, 2025	Motor Lublin 1-1 Jagiellonia	Ekstraklasa
Feb 16, 2025	Jagiellonia 3-0 Motor Lublin	Ekstraklasa
Sep 25, 2024	Motor Lublin 0-2 Jagiellonia	Ekstraklasa
Jan 17, 2024	Jagiellonia 0-0 Motor Lublin	Friendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia on Jul 31, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Jagiellonia score 1.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Motor Lublin score 1.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Jagiellonia	1.7	0.7	7	7/15	7/15
Motor Lublin	1.4	1.6	3	9/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Jagiellonia sit 10th in Ekstraklasa (6 points from 3 matches) and Motor Lublin sit 13th (5 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
10	Jagiellonia	3	2	0	1	3	3	6
13	Motor Lublin	5	1	2	2	6	8	5

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin?: The Footlab model makes Jagiellonia the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Motor Lublin.
Where and when is Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin played?: Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin is played on January 30, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the Ekstraklasa.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.