Jaguares de Chiapas vs Tapachula: prediction and stats
Primera PremierRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Víctor Manuel Reyna, Tuxtla Gutiérrez
The Footlab AI model makes Jaguares de Chiapas the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Tapachula. The most likely score is 1-1. If Jaguares de Chiapas wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,822 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 29, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jaguares de Chiapas vs Tapachula?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Jaguares de Chiapas (1,870) and Tapachula (1,834).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Jaguares de Chiapas vs Tapachula
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Jaguares de Chiapas
Not enough data to predict the Jaguares de Chiapas lineup.
Tapachula
Not enough data to predict the Tapachula lineup.
Computed on October 29, 2026 at 06:31 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jaguares de Chiapas have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Tapachula have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Reboceros La Piedad(home) | 2-2 | Primera Premier |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Pioneros de Cancún(away) | 0-0 | Primera Premier |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Inter Playa del Carmen(home) | 1-0 | Primera Premier |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Celaya(away) | 1-0 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Racing de Veracruz(home) | 1-1 | Primera Premier |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | H2O Purepechas(home) | 1-0 | Primera Premier |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Deportiva Venados(home) | 1-4 | Primera Premier |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Montañeses(away) | 1-2 | Primera Premier |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Chapulineros(home) | 2-3 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Pioneros de Cancún(away) | 1-5 | Primera Premier |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Jaguares de Chiapas wins, 2 draws, 2 Tapachula wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Jaguares de Chiapas 1-3 Tapachula | Liga Premier Serie A |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Tapachula 1-2 Jaguares de Chiapas | Liga Premier Serie A |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Tapachula 1-1 Jaguares de Chiapas | Liga Premier Serie A |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Jaguares de Chiapas 2-3 Tapachula | Liga Premier Serie A |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Jaguares de Chiapas 1-1 Tapachula | Liga Premier Serie A |
| Oct 13, 2024 | Tapachula 0-1 Jaguares de Chiapas | Liga Premier Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Jaguares de Chiapas vs Tapachula on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Jaguares de Chiapas score 1.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Tapachula score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguares de Chiapas | 1.2 | 1.2 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Tapachula | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jaguares de Chiapas sit 7th in Primera Premier (12 points from 8 matches) and Tapachula sit 15th (6 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jaguares de Chiapas | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 12 |
| 15 | Tapachula | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 6 |
A question about Jaguares de Chiapas vs Tapachula?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jaguares de Chiapas vs Tapachula?
- The Footlab AI model makes Jaguares de Chiapas the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Tapachula.
- Where and when is Jaguares de Chiapas vs Tapachula played?
- Jaguares de Chiapas vs Tapachula is played on November 29, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Víctor Manuel Reyna, in the Primera Premier.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.