JK Tabasalu vs Luunja: prediction and stats
Esiliiga BRegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC)Tabasalu Staadion, Tabasalu
The Footlab model makes JK Tabasalu the favourite at 43%, against 22% for a draw and 35% for Luunja. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win JK Tabasalu vs Luunja?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate JK Tabasalu (1,186) and Luunja (1,194).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, JK Tabasalu have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Luunja have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21(away) | 0-6 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Johvi Phoenix(away) | 2-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev II(home) | 1-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Levadia U19(away) | 0-3 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tartu Kalev(away) | 1-3 | Esiliiga B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Johvi Phoenix(home) | 2-3 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tartu Kalev(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21(home) | 2-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tulevik(away) | 0-0 | Esiliiga B |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev II(home) | 5-4 | Esiliiga B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 JK Tabasalu win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Luunja win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | Luunja 1-3 JK Tabasalu | Esiliiga B |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Luunja 4-3 JK Tabasalu | Esiliiga B |
Last archived meeting: Luunja vs JK Tabasalu on Jun 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
JK Tabasalu score 2.3 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Luunja score 2.7 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JK Tabasalu | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Luunja | 2.7 | 1.8 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
JK Tabasalu sit 8th in Esiliiga B (29 points from 25 matches) and Luunja sit 3rd (44 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Luunja | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 67 | 51 | 44 |
| 8 | JK Tabasalu | 25 | 9 | 2 | 14 | 37 | 67 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for JK Tabasalu vs Luunja?
- The Footlab model makes JK Tabasalu the favourite at 43%, against 22% for a draw and 35% for Luunja.
- Where and when is JK Tabasalu vs Luunja played?
- JK Tabasalu vs Luunja is played on October 11, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC) at Tabasalu Staadion, in the Esiliiga B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.