Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark De Toekomst, Amsterdam-Duivendrecht
The Footlab AI model makes VVV Venlo the favourite at 45%, against 23% for a draw and 32% for Jong Ajax. The most likely score is 1-1. If VVV Venlo wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (1,690 vs 1,546).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Jong Ajax
4-2-3-1- 9E. Ünüvar
- 11P. Nash
- 6M. Verkuijl
- 8Mohamed Abdalla
- 10Alejandro Monserrate
- 7J. Simeon
- 4M. Muzungu
- 2R. van de Pavert
- 19Sinclair de Falco
- 3G. Spina
- 1J. Heerkens
VVV Venlo
4-2-3-1- 9M. Tsigkas
- 7E. Zuliani
- 38Tristan Schenkhuizen
- 11N. Ait Mouhou
- 24M. Odriss
- 8Ismail Oulad M'Hand
- 4É. Clancy
- 14Raf Vullers
- 33G. Blancquart
- 5Lars de Blok
- 13Y. Schoonderwaldt
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 08:16 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jong Ajax have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; VVV Venlo have 9, 0 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Roda(home) | 0-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(away) | 1-6 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Waalwijk(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Almere City FC(away) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Jong PSV U21(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Roda(home) | 2-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | FC Volendam(away) | 2-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(away) | 3-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | FC OSS(home) | 3-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 2-4 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Jong Ajax wins, 0 draws, 4 VVV Venlo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | VVV Venlo 0-1 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Jong Ajax 2-4 VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 7, 2025 | VVV Venlo 1-0 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Jong Ajax 0-1 VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| May 3, 2024 | VVV Venlo 2-0 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 6, 2023 | Jong Ajax 3-0 VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax on Mar 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Jong Ajax score 1.2 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 15; VVV Venlo score 2.4 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax | 1.2 | 2.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| VVV Venlo | 2.4 | 1.8 | 3 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jong Ajax sit 17th in Eerste Divisie (8 points from 9 matches) and VVV Venlo sit 3rd (18 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 14 | 18 |
| 17 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 22 | 8 |
A question about Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo?
- The Footlab AI model makes VVV Venlo the favourite at 45%, against 23% for a draw and 32% for Jong Ajax.
- Where and when is Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo played?
- Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo is played on October 9, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark De Toekomst, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.