Jong AZ vs De Graafschap: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 34Kick-off on April 19, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC)AFAS Trainingscomplex, Wijdewormer
The Footlab model makes Jong AZ the favourite at 45%, against 22% for a draw and 33% for De Graafschap. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Jong AZ (1,699) and De Graafschap (1,716).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jong AZ have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; De Graafschap have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Emmen(away) | 1-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | De Graafschap(away) | 5-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 10, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(away) | 7-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Quick Boys(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | VVV Venlo(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jong AZ(home) | 2-5 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kifisia(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Jong AZ win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 De Graafschap win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | De Graafschap 2-5 Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 6, 2026 | De Graafschap 5-0 Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Jong AZ 1-3 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Feb 21, 2025 | De Graafschap 5-1 Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 23, 2024 | Jong AZ 2-2 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 29, 2024 | De Graafschap 2-1 Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: De Graafschap vs Jong AZ on Aug 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Jong AZ score 2.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; De Graafschap score 2.1 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong AZ | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| De Graafschap | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jong AZ sit 13th in Eerste Divisie (3 points from 3 matches) and De Graafschap sit 17th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Jong AZ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | Jong AZ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 17 | De Graafschap | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| 17 | De Graafschap | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
- The Footlab model makes Jong AZ the favourite at 45%, against 22% for a draw and 33% for De Graafschap.
- Where and when is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap played?
- Jong AZ vs De Graafschap is played on April 19, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at AFAS Trainingscomplex, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.