Heracles vs Jong Ajax: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 34Kick-off on April 16, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Erve Asito, Almelo
The Footlab model makes Heracles the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Jong Ajax. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Heracles vs Jong Ajax?
Heracles starts as the favourite with a 261-point Elo edge (1,790 vs 1,529).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Heracles have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Jong Ajax have 4, 1 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(away) | 6-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Den Bosch(home) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | VVV Venlo(away) | 4-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 3-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 2-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Emmen(home) | 4-6 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Dordrecht(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Jong AZ(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Heracles win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Jong Ajax win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2023 | Heracles 2-0 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 5, 2022 | Jong Ajax 4-0 Heracles | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: Heracles vs Jong Ajax on May 19, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Heracles score 1.5 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Jong Ajax score 1.5 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Jong Ajax | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Heracles sit 1st in Eerste Divisie (9 points from 3 matches) and Jong Ajax sit 18th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 9 |
| 1 | Heracles | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 9 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Heracles vs Jong Ajax?
- The Footlab model makes Heracles the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Jong Ajax.
- Where and when is Heracles vs Jong Ajax played?
- Heracles vs Jong Ajax is played on April 16, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Erve Asito, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.