KäPa vs MP: prediction and stats
YkkösliigaGroup StageKick-off on October 9, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Kumpulanlaakson tekonurmi, Helsinki
The Footlab model makes KäPa the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for MP. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win KäPa vs MP?
A very open match: only 57 Elo points separate KäPa (1,508) and MP (1,565).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, KäPa have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; MP have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | JIPPO(home) | 1-3 | Ykkösliiga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kooteepee(away) | 1-2 | Ykkösliiga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | EIF(home) | 0-1 | Ykkösliiga |
| Jul 29, 2026 | MP(away) | 1-2 | Ykkösliiga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Haka(away) | 1-3 | Ykkösliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Klubi-04(away) | 3-4 | Ykkösliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | EIF(home) | 0-2 | Ykkösliiga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | JäPS(away) | 0-1 | Ykkösliiga |
| Jul 29, 2026 | KäPa(home) | 2-1 | Ykkösliiga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kooteepee(home) | 3-3 | Ykkösliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 KäPa win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 MP win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | MP 2-1 KäPa | Ykkösliiga |
| Apr 19, 2026 | MP 0-1 KäPa | Ykkösliiga |
| Sep 14, 2024 | KäPa 3-2 MP | Ykkösliiga |
| Jul 11, 2024 | MP 2-6 KäPa | Ykkösliiga |
| May 12, 2024 | KäPa 4-0 MP | Ykkösliiga |
| Jun 28, 2023 | MP 6-2 KäPa | Ykkönen |
How many goals should we expect?
KäPa score 0.9 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; MP score 1.3 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KäPa | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| MP | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
KäPa sit 8th in Ykkösliiga (16 points from 20 matches) and MP sit 7th (21 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | MP | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 26 | 21 |
| 7 | MP | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 26 | 21 |
| 8 | KäPa | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 35 | 16 |
| 8 | KäPa | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 35 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for KäPa vs MP?
- The Footlab model makes KäPa the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for MP.
- Where and when is KäPa vs MP played?
- KäPa vs MP is played on October 9, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Kumpulanlaakson tekonurmi, in the Ykkösliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.