KäPa vs MP: prediction and stats
YkkösliigaGroup StageKick-off on October 9, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Kumpulanlaakson tekonurmi, Helsinki
The Footlab AI model makes KäPa the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for MP. The most likely score is 1-1. If KäPa wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win KäPa vs MP?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate KäPa (1,485) and MP (1,545).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for KäPa vs MP
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
KäPa
4-3-3- 10Y. Lika
- 28E. Lappalainen
- 22D. Ripatti
- 11S. Sillah
- 8R. Huhtamäki
- 7N. Leinonen
- 2U. Huhtamäki
- 4P. Hietalahti
- 3S. Puputti
- 39S. Savini
- 1T. Collin
MP
4-3-3- 16S. Obioha
- 28A. Tervaniemi
- 15S. Stenius
- 26A. Kuek
- 6T. Afshari
- 44N. Forsell
- 4V. Laiho
- 7A. Chishima
- 97A. Traore
- 42A. Ring
- 22J. Uronen
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 02:04 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, KäPa have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; MP have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Haka(home) | 3-2 | Ykkösliiga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | SJK Akatemia(away) | 3-2 | Ykkösliiga |
| Sep 11, 2026 | PK-35(home) | 1-4 | Ykkösliiga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Klubi-04(away) | 2-2 | Ykkösliiga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | JäPS(away) | 0-0 | Ykkösliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Kooteepee(away) | 1-1 | Ykkösliiga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | JIPPO(home) | 1-0 | Ykkösliiga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | SJK Akatemia(home) | 1-1 | Ykkösliiga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Haka(away) | 2-0 | Ykkösliiga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | PK-35(home) | 0-3 | Ykkösliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 KäPa wins, 0 draws, 2 MP wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | MP 2-1 KäPa | Ykkösliiga |
| Apr 19, 2026 | MP 0-1 KäPa | Ykkösliiga |
| Sep 14, 2024 | KäPa 3-2 MP | Ykkösliiga |
| Jul 11, 2024 | MP 2-6 KäPa | Ykkösliiga |
| May 12, 2024 | KäPa 4-0 MP | Ykkösliiga |
| Jun 28, 2023 | MP 6-2 KäPa | Ykkönen |
How many goals should we expect?
KäPa score 1.3 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; MP score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KäPa | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| MP | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
KäPa sit 8th in Ykkösliiga (24 points from 25 matches) and MP sit 7th (29 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | MP | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 27 | 35 | 29 |
| 8 | KäPa | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 30 | 45 | 24 |
A question about KäPa vs MP?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for KäPa vs MP?
- The Footlab AI model makes KäPa the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for MP.
- Where and when is KäPa vs MP played?
- KäPa vs MP is played on October 9, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Kumpulanlaakson tekonurmi, in the Ykkösliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.