Keflavik vs Valur Reykjavik: prediction and stats
ÚrvalsdeildRegular Season - 22Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)HS Orku völlurinn, Keflavík, Reykjanesbær
The Footlab model makes Keflavik the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for Valur Reykjavik. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Keflavik vs Valur Reykjavik?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Keflavik (1,736) and Valur Reykjavik (1,741).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Keflavik have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Valur Reykjavik have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar(home) | 1-0 | Úrvalsdeild |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Thor Akureyri(away) | 2-0 | Úrvalsdeild |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Stjarnan(away) | 0-1 | Úrvalsdeild |
| Aug 5, 2026 | KA Akureyri(home) | 3-0 | Úrvalsdeild |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Vikingur Reykjavik(away) | 1-5 | Úrvalsdeild |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vikingur Reykjavik(away) | 0-2 | Úrvalsdeild |
| Aug 17, 2026 | KA Akureyri(home) | 4-4 | Úrvalsdeild |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FC Nordsjaelland(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Breidablik(away) | 3-1 | Úrvalsdeild |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FC Nordsjaelland(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Keflavik win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Valur Reykjavik win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2026 | Valur Reykjavik 1-1 Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| Jun 9, 2024 | Keflavik 3-3 Valur Reykjavik | Cup |
| Aug 13, 2023 | Keflavik 1-1 Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| May 21, 2023 | Valur Reykjavik 0-0 Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| Jul 11, 2022 | Valur Reykjavik 0-3 Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| Apr 24, 2022 | Keflavik 0-1 Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild |
Last archived meeting: Valur Reykjavik vs Keflavik on Jun 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Keflavik score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Valur Reykjavik score 1.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keflavik | 1.7 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Valur Reykjavik | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Keflavik sit 7th in Úrvalsdeild (11 points from 9 matches) and Valur Reykjavik sit 5th (15 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Keflavik | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 31 | 34 | 28 |
| 5 | Valur Reykjavik | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 22 | 15 |
| 5 | Valur Reykjavik | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 36 | 22 |
| 7 | Keflavik | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 11 |
| 7 | Keflavik | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 34 | 22 |
| 8 | Valur Reykjavik | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 35 | 42 | 23 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Keflavik vs Valur Reykjavik?
- The Footlab model makes Keflavik the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for Valur Reykjavik.
- Where and when is Keflavik vs Valur Reykjavik played?
- Keflavik vs Valur Reykjavik is played on September 6, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at HS Orku völlurinn, in the Úrvalsdeild.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.