Keith vs Buckie Thistle: prediction and stats
Football League - Highland LeagueHighland League - 9Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Kynoch Park, Keith
The Footlab model makes Buckie Thistle the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Keith. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Keith vs Buckie Thistle?
Buckie Thistle starts as the favourite with a 180-point Elo edge (1,656 vs 1,476).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Keith have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Buckie Thistle have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Formartine United(away) | 1-4 | Football League - Highland League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Clachnacuddin(away) | 1-1 | Football League - Highland League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lossiemouth(home) | 2-2 | Football League - Highland League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Fraserburgh(away) | 0-1 | Football League - Highland League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nairn County(home) | 1-1 | Football League - Highland League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Invergordon(away) | 6-0 | Football League - Highland League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Turriff United(away) | 2-1 | Football League - Highland League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brora Rangers(home) | 2-2 | Football League - Highland League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Strathspey Thistle(away) | 2-0 | Football League - Highland League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Banks O' Dee(home) | 7-2 | Football League - Highland League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Keith win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Buckie Thistle win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | Buckie Thistle 5-0 Keith | Football League - Highland League |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Keith 0-2 Buckie Thistle | Football League - Highland League |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Buckie Thistle 3-0 Keith | Football League - Highland League |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Keith 3-1 Buckie Thistle | Football League - Highland League |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Buckie Thistle 1-0 Keith | Football League - Highland League |
| Apr 8, 2024 | Keith 0-3 Buckie Thistle | Football League - Highland League |
Last archived meeting: Buckie Thistle vs Keith on Dec 20, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Keith score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Buckie Thistle score 2.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Buckie Thistle | 2.4 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Keith sit 6th in Football League - Highland League (58 points from 34 matches) and Buckie Thistle sit 8th (53 points from 34 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Keith | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 52 | 47 | 58 |
| 8 | Buckie Thistle | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 62 | 47 | 53 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Keith vs Buckie Thistle?
- The Footlab model makes Buckie Thistle the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Keith.
- Where and when is Keith vs Buckie Thistle played?
- Keith vs Buckie Thistle is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Kynoch Park, in the Football League - Highland League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 5, 2026Formartine UnitedvsNairn County
- Sep 5, 2026ClachnacuddinvsLossiemouth
- Sep 5, 2026DeveronvalevsFraserburgh
- Sep 5, 2026RothesvsBanks O' Dee
- Sep 5, 2026Turriff UnitedvsInverurie Loco Works
- Sep 5, 2026Wick AcademyvsForres Mechanics
- Sep 5, 2026HuntlyvsBrora Rangers
- Sep 5, 2026InvergordonvsStrathspey Thistle