Kitakyushu vs Iwaki: prediction and stats
J-League CupRound of 128Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Mikuni World Stadium, Kitakyushu
The Footlab model makes Iwaki the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Kitakyushu. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kitakyushu vs Iwaki?
Iwaki starts as the favourite with a 161-point Elo edge (1,780 vs 1,619).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kitakyushu have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Iwaki have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tochigi SC(away) | 2-2 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Okinawa SV(home) | 1-2 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kamatamare Sanuki(home) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Yokohama FC(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Tochigi SC(away) | 1-2 | J2/J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oita Trinita(away) | 1-4 | J2 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(away) | 1-3 | J2 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Imabari(home) | 2-1 | J2 League |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Tokushima Vortis(away) | 0-2 | J2/J3 League |
| May 30, 2026 | Shonan Bellmare(away) | 2-1 | J2/J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Kitakyushu win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Iwaki win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2022 | Kitakyushu 0-1 Iwaki | J3 League |
| Jun 19, 2022 | Iwaki 2-2 Kitakyushu | J3 League |
How many goals should we expect?
Kitakyushu score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Iwaki score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitakyushu | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Iwaki | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kitakyushu vs Iwaki?
- The Footlab model makes Iwaki the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Kitakyushu.
- Where and when is Kitakyushu vs Iwaki played?
- Kitakyushu vs Iwaki is played on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Mikuni World Stadium, in the J-League Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 2, 2026SagamiharavsJubilo Iwata
- Sep 2, 2026Vanraure HachinohevsTochigi City
- Sep 2, 2026Renofa YamaguchivsFujieda MYFC
- Sep 2, 2026Ehime FCvsBlaublitz Akita
- Sep 2, 2026Thespakusatsu GunmavsAlbirex Niigata
- Sep 2, 2026FC RyukyuvsYokohama FC
- Sep 2, 2026Kagoshima UnitedvsConsadole Sapporo
- Sep 2, 2026Roasso KumamotovsOita Trinita