Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Albirex Niigata: prediction and stats
J-League CupRound of 128Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Shoda Shoyu Stadium, Maebashi
The Footlab model makes Albirex Niigata the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Thespakusatsu Gunma. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Albirex Niigata?
Albirex Niigata starts as the favourite with a 125-point Elo edge (1,788 vs 1,663).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Thespakusatsu Gunma have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Albirex Niigata have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(away) | 1-4 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Tohoku Gakuin University(away) | 3-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sagamihara(home) | 1-4 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kagoshima United(away) | 0-1 | J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Kagoshima United(home) | 0-4 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 1-0 | J2 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Consadole Sapporo(home) | 2-1 | J2 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Omiya Ardija(away) | 0-1 | J2 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Montedio Yamagata(home) | 3-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Thespakusatsu Gunma win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Albirex Niigata win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2022 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 0-2 Albirex Niigata | J2 League |
| Mar 26, 2022 | Albirex Niigata 3-2 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J2 League |
| Nov 21, 2021 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 0-0 Albirex Niigata | J2 League |
| Mar 20, 2021 | Albirex Niigata 3-1 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J2 League |
| Dec 13, 2020 | Albirex Niigata 1-2 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J2 League |
| Feb 23, 2020 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 0-3 Albirex Niigata | J2 League |
Last archived meeting: Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Albirex Niigata on Jul 2, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Thespakusatsu Gunma score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Albirex Niigata score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thespakusatsu Gunma | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Albirex Niigata | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Albirex Niigata?
- The Footlab model makes Albirex Niigata the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Thespakusatsu Gunma.
- Where and when is Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Albirex Niigata played?
- Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Albirex Niigata is played on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Shoda Shoyu Stadium, in the J-League Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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