Match

Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Albirex Niigata: prediction and stats

J-League CupRound of 128Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Shoda Shoyu Stadium, Maebashi

Thespakusatsu GunmaAlbirex Niigata

The Footlab model makes Albirex Niigata the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Thespakusatsu Gunma. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Albirex Niigata?

Albirex Niigata starts as the favourite with a 125-point Elo edge (1,788 vs 1,663).

Thespakusatsu Gunma win29 %
Draw24 %
Albirex Niigata win47 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Thespakusatsu Gunma have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Albirex Niigata have 8, 2 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Thespakusatsu Gunma
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 26, 2026Tokyo Verdy(away)1-4Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026Biwako Shiga(home)2-3J3 League
Aug 19, 2026Tohoku Gakuin University(away)3-1Emperor Cup
Aug 15, 2026Sagamihara(home)1-4J3 League
Aug 8, 2026Kagoshima United(away)0-1J3 League
Albirex Niigata
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 26, 2026Kagoshima United(home)0-4Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026Fujieda MYFC(home)1-0J2 League
Aug 15, 2026Consadole Sapporo(home)2-1J2 League
Aug 8, 2026Omiya Ardija(away)0-1J2 League
Jul 25, 2026Montedio Yamagata(home)3-4Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Thespakusatsu Gunma win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Albirex Niigata win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 2, 2022Thespakusatsu Gunma 0-2 Albirex NiigataJ2 League
Mar 26, 2022Albirex Niigata 3-2 Thespakusatsu GunmaJ2 League
Nov 21, 2021Thespakusatsu Gunma 0-0 Albirex NiigataJ2 League
Mar 20, 2021Albirex Niigata 3-1 Thespakusatsu GunmaJ2 League
Dec 13, 2020Albirex Niigata 1-2 Thespakusatsu GunmaJ2 League
Feb 23, 2020Thespakusatsu Gunma 0-3 Albirex NiigataJ2 League

Last archived meeting: Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Albirex Niigata on Jul 2, 2022

How many goals should we expect?

Thespakusatsu Gunma score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Albirex Niigata score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Thespakusatsu Gunma1.71.9211/1511/15
Albirex Niigata1.11.156/156/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Albirex Niigata?
The Footlab model makes Albirex Niigata the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Thespakusatsu Gunma.
Where and when is Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Albirex Niigata played?
Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Albirex Niigata is played on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Shoda Shoyu Stadium, in the J-League Cup.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Thespakusatsu Gunma and Albirex Niigata

Ready to know everything about football?