Where and when is Kitakyushu vs Kagoshima United played?

Kitakyushu vs Kagoshima United is played on September 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Mikuni World Stadium, in the J3 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Kitakyushu vs Kagoshima United: prediction and stats

J3 LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Mikuni World Stadium, Kitakyushu

Kitakyushu

Kagoshima United

The Footlab model makes Kagoshima United the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Kitakyushu. The most likely score is 0-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Kitakyushu vs Kagoshima United?

Kagoshima United starts as the favourite with a 194-point Elo edge (1,812 vs 1,618).

Kitakyushu win19 %

Draw26 %

Kagoshima United win55 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kitakyushu have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Kagoshima United have 8, 3 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Kitakyushu
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Tochigi SC(away)	2-2	J3 League
Aug 19, 2026	Okinawa SV(home)	1-2	Emperor Cup
Aug 15, 2026	Kamatamare Sanuki(home)	0-0	J3 League
Jul 18, 2026	Yokohama FC(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 7, 2026	Tochigi SC(away)	1-2	J2/J3 League

Kagoshima United
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	FC Gifu(home)	0-0	J3 League
Aug 19, 2026	Renofa Yamaguchi(home)	2-1	Emperor Cup
Aug 16, 2026	Nara Club(away)	3-1	J3 League
Aug 8, 2026	Thespakusatsu Gunma(home)	1-0	J3 League
Jun 7, 2026	Blaublitz Akita(away)	2-0	J2/J3 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Kitakyushu win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Kagoshima United win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 24, 2026	Kitakyushu 1-5 Kagoshima United	J2/J3 League
Apr 5, 2026	Kagoshima United 1-1 Kitakyushu	J2/J3 League
Oct 11, 2025	Kitakyushu 1-1 Kagoshima United	J3 League
Mar 23, 2025	Kagoshima United 1-0 Kitakyushu	J3 League
Aug 26, 2023	Kitakyushu 1-1 Kagoshima United	J3 League
May 21, 2023	Kitakyushu 2-2 Kagoshima United	Emperor Cup

Last archived meeting: Kitakyushu vs Kagoshima United on May 24, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Kitakyushu score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Kagoshima United score 1.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Kitakyushu	1.1	1.9	2	10/15	10/15
Kagoshima United	1.5	0.8	4	8/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Kitakyushu sit 15th in J3 League (2 points from 2 matches) and Kagoshima United sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Kagoshima United	3	2	1	0	4	1	7
15	Kitakyushu	2	0	2	0	2	2	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Kitakyushu vs Kagoshima United?: The Footlab model makes Kagoshima United the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Kitakyushu.
Where and when is Kitakyushu vs Kagoshima United played?: Kitakyushu vs Kagoshima United is played on September 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Mikuni World Stadium, in the J3 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.