Where and when is Laguna de Duero vs Estrella played?

Laguna de Duero vs Estrella is played on November 1, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Laguna de Duero vs Estrella: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 9Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)

Laguna de Duero

Estrella

The Footlab model makes Laguna de Duero the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Estrella. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Laguna de Duero vs Estrella?

A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Laguna de Duero (1,542) and Estrella (1,598).

Laguna de Duero win44 %

Draw28 %

Estrella win28 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Laguna de Duero have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Estrella have 4, 7 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Laguna de Duero
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2025	Cultural Leonesa II(home)	1-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 4, 2025	Cristo Atlético(away)	1-4	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 1, 2025	Mirandés II(home)	1-4	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 26, 2025	Atlético Mansillés(away)	0-5	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 20, 2025	Ciudad Rodrigo(home)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Estrella
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 11, 2025	Herbania(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 4, 2025	San Bartolomé(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 26, 2025	Santa Úrsula(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 17, 2025	Buzanada(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 12, 2025	Marino(home)	2-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

How many goals should we expect?

Laguna de Duero score 0.9 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Estrella score 0.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Laguna de Duero	0.9	2.1	3	7/15	8/15
Estrella	0.9	1.0	5	7/15	4/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Laguna de Duero vs Estrella?: The Footlab model makes Laguna de Duero the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Estrella.
Where and when is Laguna de Duero vs Estrella played?: Laguna de Duero vs Estrella is played on November 1, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.