Lancaster City vs Ashton United: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 20Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Giant Axe Stadium, Lancaster, Lancashire
The Footlab model makes Lancaster City the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Ashton United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lancaster City vs Ashton United?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Lancaster City (1,745) and Ashton United (1,753).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lancaster City have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Ashton United have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Bury(away) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Quorn(home) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Redcar Athletic(away) | 1-3 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hyde United(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Rylands(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Ilkeston Town(home) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 22, 2026 | AFC Emley(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Whitby Town(home) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bamber Bridge(away) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Stockton Town(away) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lancaster City win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Ashton United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ashton United 4-1 Lancaster City | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Lancaster City 3-2 Ashton United | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Ashton United 1-3 Lancaster City | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Ashton United 2-1 Lancaster City | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Lancaster City 2-2 Ashton United | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Mar 5, 2024 | Ashton United 5-0 Lancaster City | Non League Premier - Northern |
Last archived meeting: Ashton United vs Lancaster City on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lancaster City score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Ashton United score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lancaster City | 1.5 | 1.3 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Ashton United | 1.3 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lancaster City sit 18th in Non League Premier - Northern (4 points from 5 matches) and Ashton United sit 5th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ashton United | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 10 |
| 18 | Lancaster City | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lancaster City vs Ashton United?
- The Footlab model makes Lancaster City the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Ashton United.
- Where and when is Lancaster City vs Ashton United played?
- Lancaster City vs Ashton United is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Giant Axe Stadium, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.