Workington vs Gainsborough Trinity: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 20Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Borough Park, Workington, Cumbria
The Footlab model makes Gainsborough Trinity the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Workington. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Workington vs Gainsborough Trinity?
Gainsborough Trinity starts as the favourite with a 103-point Elo edge (1,791 vs 1,689).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Workington have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Gainsborough Trinity have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | United of Manchester(away) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Avro(away) | 1-4 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guiseley AFC(home) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Redcar Athletic(home) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity(away) | 0-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bury(home) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Stockton Town(home) | 4-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | United of Manchester(away) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Alfreton Town(away) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Workington(home) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Workington win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Gainsborough Trinity win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity 2-0 Workington | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity 3-3 Workington | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Workington 1-2 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Workington 1-1 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Gainsborough Trinity 3-0 Workington | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Mar 23, 2024 | Gainsborough Trinity 4-2 Workington | Non League Premier - Northern |
Last archived meeting: Gainsborough Trinity vs Workington on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Workington score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Gainsborough Trinity score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workington | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Gainsborough Trinity | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Workington sit 19th in Non League Premier - Northern (4 points from 5 matches) and Gainsborough Trinity sit 8th (9 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gainsborough Trinity | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 9 |
| 19 | Workington | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Workington vs Gainsborough Trinity?
- The Footlab model makes Gainsborough Trinity the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Workington.
- Where and when is Workington vs Gainsborough Trinity played?
- Workington vs Gainsborough Trinity is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Borough Park, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.