Match

Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield: prediction and stats

Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 12Kick-off on October 12, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez, Lanús, Provincia de Buenos Aires

LanusVelez Sarsfield

The Footlab AI model makes Lanus the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Velez Sarsfield. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lanus wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield?

On Elo ratings, Lanus has 1,936 points and Velez Sarsfield 1,990.

50%27%23%
Lanus winDrawVelez Sarsfield win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Lanus

4-2-3-1
  1. 20A. Wlk
  1. 11E. Salvio
  2. 30A. Cardozo
  3. 77L. Besozzi
  4. 5F. Peña
  5. 8F. Watson
  1. 24C. Izquierdoz
  2. 6S. Marcich
  3. 33T. Guidara
  4. 35R. De Jesús
  1. 26N. Losada

Velez Sarsfield

4-2-3-1
  1. 77R. Martínez
  1. 29R. Aliendro
  2. 8L. Robertone
  3. 22M. Lanzini
  4. 37J. Policella
  5. 39T. Aguirre
  1. 3Elías Gómez
  2. 4J. García
  3. 32Thiago Silveor
  4. 16L. Magallán
  1. 1T. Marchiori

Computed on October 9, 2026 at 02:33 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lanus have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Velez Sarsfield have 6, 8 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Lanus
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 3, 2026Newells Old Boys(away)0-0Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 22, 2026Estudiantes L.P.(home)2-1Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 14, 2026Deportivo Riestra(away)3-0Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 6, 2026Defensa Y Justicia(home)1-0Liga Profesional Argentina
Aug 29, 2026Boca Juniors(away)0-1Liga Profesional Argentina
Velez Sarsfield
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 5, 2026Platense(home)2-2Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 21, 2026Tigre(home)3-2Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 11, 2026Newells Old Boys(away)1-1Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 6, 2026Estudiantes L.P.(home)1-0Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 3, 2026Boca Juniors(home)0-0Copa Argentina

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lanus wins, 2 draws, 2 Velez Sarsfield wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 21, 2026Velez Sarsfield 0-1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
Aug 31, 2025Velez Sarsfield 3-0 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
May 22, 2025Lanus 2-0 Velez SarsfieldCopa Argentina
Feb 22, 2025Lanus 0-0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
Nov 20, 2024Velez Sarsfield 0-0 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
Jul 4, 2023Lanus 0-1 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina

Last archived meeting: Velez Sarsfield vs Lanus on Mar 21, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Lanus score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Velez Sarsfield score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Lanus1.11.075/157/15
Velez Sarsfield1.30.959/154/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Lanus sit 5th in Liga Profesional Argentina (17 points from 11 matches) and Velez Sarsfield sit 2nd (21 points from 11 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Velez Sarsfield11560171121
5Lanus1152413917

A question about Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield?
The Footlab AI model makes Lanus the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Velez Sarsfield.
Where and when is Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield played?
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield is played on October 12, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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