Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 12Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez, Lanús, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Lanus the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Velez Sarsfield. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Lanus (1,860) and Velez Sarsfield (1,938).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lanus have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Velez Sarsfield have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Independiente(home) | 1-3 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba(away) | 3-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Union Santa Fe(away) | 1-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Instituto Cordoba(home) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 0-4 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | River Plate(away) | 2-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Defensa Y Justicia(home) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Boca Juniors(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Independiente(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lanus win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Velez Sarsfield win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield 0-1 Lanus | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Velez Sarsfield 3-0 Lanus | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| May 22, 2025 | Lanus 2-0 Velez Sarsfield | Copa Argentina |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Lanus 0-0 Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Nov 20, 2024 | Velez Sarsfield 0-0 Lanus | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 4, 2023 | Lanus 0-1 Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: Velez Sarsfield vs Lanus on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lanus score 0.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Velez Sarsfield score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lanus | 0.7 | 1.3 | 7 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
| Velez Sarsfield | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lanus sit 6th in Liga Profesional Argentina (24 points from 16 matches) and Velez Sarsfield sit 3rd (28 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 28 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 24 |
| 13 | Lanus | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield?
- The Footlab model makes Lanus the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Velez Sarsfield.
- Where and when is Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield played?
- Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 11, 2026Gimnasia L.P.vsAtletico Tucuman
- Oct 11, 2026River PlatevsEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- Oct 11, 2026Racing ClubvsBelgrano Cordoba
- Oct 11, 2026Rosario CentralvsIndepend. Rivadavia
- Oct 11, 2026Union Santa FevsDefensa Y Justicia
- Oct 11, 2026TigrevsBanfield
- Oct 11, 2026Talleres CordobavsIndependiente
- Oct 11, 2026San LorenzovsDeportivo Riestra