Lanzarote vs Unión Sur Yaiza: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de fútbol Francisco Bermúdez Hernández, Tías
The Footlab model makes Lanzarote the favourite at 64%, against 25% for a draw and 11% for Unión Sur Yaiza. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lanzarote vs Unión Sur Yaiza?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Lanzarote (1,782) and Unión Sur Yaiza (1,711).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lanzarote have 2 wins, 9 draws and 4 defeats; Unión Sur Yaiza have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Real Unión de Tenerife(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 3, 2026 | San Bartolomé(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Tamaraceite(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UD San Fernando(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Herbania(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Panadería Pulido(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 3, 2026 | Telde(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Marino(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Arucas(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Mensajero(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Lanzarote win(s), 5 draw(s), 1 Unión Sur Yaiza win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Lanzarote 0-0 Unión Sur Yaiza | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Unión Sur Yaiza 3-3 Lanzarote | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 12, 2024 | Lanzarote 0-0 Unión Sur Yaiza | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Unión Sur Yaiza 0-0 Lanzarote | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Jan 15, 2023 | Lanzarote 0-1 Unión Sur Yaiza | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 10, 2022 | Unión Sur Yaiza 2-2 Lanzarote | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
Last archived meeting: Lanzarote vs Unión Sur Yaiza on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lanzarote score 0.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Unión Sur Yaiza score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lanzarote | 0.8 | 1.0 | 4 | 8/15 | 3/15 |
| Unión Sur Yaiza | 1.1 | 1.1 | 7 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lanzarote sit 9th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (48 points from 34 matches) and Unión Sur Yaiza sit 13th (38 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lanzarote | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 45 | 36 | 48 |
| 13 | Unión Sur Yaiza | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 33 | 43 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lanzarote vs Unión Sur Yaiza?
- The Footlab model makes Lanzarote the favourite at 64%, against 25% for a draw and 11% for Unión Sur Yaiza.
- Where and when is Lanzarote vs Unión Sur Yaiza played?
- Lanzarote vs Unión Sur Yaiza is played on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de fútbol Francisco Bermúdez Hernández, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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