Muzinga vs Aigle Noir: prediction and stats
Ligue ARegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 3, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Intwari, Bujumbura
The Footlab model makes Aigle Noir the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Muzinga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Muzinga vs Aigle Noir?
Aigle Noir is a heavy favourite: 1,735 Elo points against 1,410 — a 325-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Muzinga have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Aigle Noir have 8, 6 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Le Messager Ngozi(away) | 1-2 | Ligue A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Never Give Up Academy(home) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| May 8, 2026 | Green Farmers FC(away) | 4-2 | Ligue A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Kayanza United(home) | 0-0 | Ligue A |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Garage Express(away) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Flambeau du Centre(away) | 1-1 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Olympic Star(home) | 3-1 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Garage Express(home) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Royal Vision(away) | 1-2 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Dynamik(home) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Muzinga win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Aigle Noir win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Aigle Noir 4-1 Muzinga | Ligue A |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Muzinga 2-2 Aigle Noir | Ligue A |
| Apr 30, 2021 | Muzinga 1-4 Aigle Noir | Ligue A |
| Sep 26, 2020 | Aigle Noir 2-0 Muzinga | Ligue A |
Last archived meeting: Aigle Noir vs Muzinga on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Muzinga score 1.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Aigle Noir score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muzinga | 1.1 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Aigle Noir | 1.6 | 0.9 | 4 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Muzinga sit 7th in Ligue A (3 points from 2 matches) and Aigle Noir sit 2nd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aigle Noir | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Muzinga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Muzinga vs Aigle Noir?
- The Footlab model makes Aigle Noir the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Muzinga.
- Where and when is Muzinga vs Aigle Noir played?
- Muzinga vs Aigle Noir is played on November 3, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Intwari, in the Ligue A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.