Lecce vs Inter: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce
The Footlab model makes Inter the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Lecce. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lecce vs Inter?
Inter is a heavy favourite: 2,318 Elo points against 1,918 — a 400-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lecce have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Inter have 10, 5 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Venezia(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Palermo(away) | 0-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SS Monopoli(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Bistrica(home) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Istra 1961(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Monza(home) | 4-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Real Betis(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | AC Milan(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Lecce win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Inter win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Lecce 0-2 Inter | Serie A |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Inter 1-0 Lecce | Serie A |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Lecce 0-4 Inter | Serie A |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Inter 2-0 Lecce | Serie A |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Lecce 0-4 Inter | Serie A |
| Dec 23, 2023 | Inter 2-0 Lecce | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Lecce score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Inter score 2.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Inter | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lecce sit 3rd in Serie A (3 points from 1 matches) and Inter sit 1st (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lecce vs Inter?
- The Footlab model makes Inter the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Lecce.
- Where and when is Lecce vs Inter played?
- Lecce vs Inter is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.