Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 23, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Warszawa
The Footlab model makes Legia Warszawa the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Gornik Zabrze. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Legia Warszawa (2,059) and Gornik Zabrze (2,040).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Legia Warszawa have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Gornik Zabrze have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(away) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Radomiak Radom(home) | 5-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Korona Kielce(away) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Zaglebie Lubin(home) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Pogon Szczecin(away) | 1-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Wisla Krakow(home) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Radomiak Radom(away) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Legia Warszawa win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Gornik Zabrze win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Legia Warszawa 1-1 Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Gornik Zabrze 3-1 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Gornik Zabrze 1-2 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Legia Warszawa 1-1 Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
| Apr 1, 2024 | Gornik Zabrze 1-3 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Legia Warszawa 2-1 Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Legia Warszawa score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gornik Zabrze score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legia Warszawa | 1.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Gornik Zabrze | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Legia Warszawa sit 1st in Ekstraklasa (11 points from 5 matches) and Gornik Zabrze sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze?
- The Footlab model makes Legia Warszawa the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Gornik Zabrze.
- Where and when is Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze played?
- Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze is played on April 23, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 23, 2027JagielloniavsWieczysta Kraków
- Apr 23, 2027Slask WroclawvsRadomiak Radom
- Apr 23, 2027Wisla KrakowvsLech Poznan
- Apr 23, 2027Korona KielcevsZaglebie Lubin
- Apr 23, 2027Pogon SzczecinvsRaków Częstochowa
- Apr 23, 2027Piast GliwicevsWisla Plock
- Apr 23, 2027Widzew ŁódźvsGKS Katowice
- Apr 23, 2027Motor LublinvsCracovia Krakow