Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 23, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Szczecin
The Footlab model makes Pogon Szczecin the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Raków Częstochowa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Pogon Szczecin (1,993) and Raków Częstochowa (2,034).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pogon Szczecin have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Raków Częstochowa have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Wisla Krakow(home) | 2-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Motor Lublin(home) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Cracovia Krakow(away) | 2-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Legia Warszawa(home) | 0-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cracovia Krakow(away) | 1-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Hammarby FF(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Hammarby FF(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Slask Wroclaw(away) | 1-2 | Ekstraklasa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Pogon Szczecin win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Raków Częstochowa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Pogon Szczecin 2-0 Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Raków Częstochowa 1-0 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| May 11, 2024 | Raków Częstochowa 2-1 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Pogon Szczecin 1-1 Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pogon Szczecin score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Raków Częstochowa score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogon Szczecin | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Raków Częstochowa | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pogon Szczecin sit 5th in Ekstraklasa (7 points from 4 matches) and Raków Częstochowa sit 18th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pogon Szczecin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
- The Footlab model makes Pogon Szczecin the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Raków Częstochowa.
- Where and when is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa played?
- Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa is played on April 23, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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