Legion vs Tartu Kalev: prediction and stats
Esiliiga BRegular Season - 28Kick-off on September 10, 2026 at 02:45 PM (UTC)Kadrioru staadion, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes Tartu Kalev the favourite at 73%, against 14% for a draw and 13% for Legion. The most likely score is 1-3.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Legion vs Tartu Kalev?
Tartu Kalev starts as the favourite with a 262-point Elo edge (1,291 vs 1,029).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Legion have 2 wins, 1 draws and 12 defeats; Tartu Kalev have 10, 0 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Levadia U19(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev II(away) | 3-3 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Narva U21(home) | 1-3 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Johvi Phoenix(home) | 0-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Saku Sporting(away) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Luunja(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 0-8 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tulevik(home) | 4-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | JK Tabasalu(home) | 3-1 | Esiliiga B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Legion win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Tartu Kalev win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 2026 | Tartu Kalev 10-2 Legion | Esiliiga B |
| May 24, 2026 | Legion 0-6 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Tartu Kalev 1-0 Legion | Esiliiga B |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Tartu Kalev 4-3 Legion | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Legion 0-1 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Tartu Kalev 0-1 Legion | Esiliiga B |
Last archived meeting: Tartu Kalev vs Legion on Jul 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Legion score 1.1 and concede 4.1 goals per match over their last 15; Tartu Kalev score 3.3 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 85% probability of over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legion | 1.1 | 4.1 | 1 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
| Tartu Kalev | 3.3 | 2.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Legion sit 10th in Esiliiga B (12 points from 24 matches) and Tartu Kalev sit 5th (40 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tartu Kalev | 24 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 64 | 46 | 40 |
| 10 | Legion | 24 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 25 | 88 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Legion vs Tartu Kalev?
- The Footlab model makes Tartu Kalev the favourite at 73%, against 14% for a draw and 13% for Legion.
- Where and when is Legion vs Tartu Kalev played?
- Legion vs Tartu Kalev is played on September 10, 2026 at 02:45 PM (UTC) at Kadrioru staadion, in the Esiliiga B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 85% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.