Chaves vs Tondela: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Chaves
The Footlab AI model makes Tondela the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Chaves. The most likely score is 1-1. If Tondela wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chaves vs Tondela?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Chaves (1,969) and Tondela (2,050).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chaves vs Tondela
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chaves
4-3-3- 10André Rodrigues
- 30Costinha
- 17Roberto
- 19Gilberto García
- 42Aílson Tavares
- 16D. Yearwood
- 23Léo Alabá
- 34Ricardo Alves
- 33Tiago Simões
- 7R. Esajas
- 1João Valido
Tondela
4-2-3-1- 19Tómané
- 20Hugo Félix
- 7Cascavel
- 97Cícero
- 37Sarará
- 8Hélder Tavares
- 15Carraça
- 12Zé Ricardo
- 4Christian Marques
- 6Farru
- 28Araujo Carlos
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 02:09 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chaves have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Tondela have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Farense(away) | 0-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guarda(away) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(away) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Imortal Albufeira(away) | 5-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Portimonense(away) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | FC Porto B(home) | 3-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Chaves win, 2 draws, 3 Tondela wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2025 | Tondela 2-1 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Chaves 2-2 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| May 19, 2019 | Tondela 5-2 Chaves | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 13, 2019 | Chaves 2-1 Tondela | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 4, 2018 | Tondela 2-0 Chaves | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 29, 2017 | Chaves 1-1 Tondela | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Chaves score 1.4 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Tondela score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Tondela | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chaves sit 17th in Segunda Liga (5 points from 7 matches) and Tondela sit 7th (12 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 12 |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 5 |
A question about Chaves vs Tondela?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chaves vs Tondela?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tondela the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Chaves.
- Where and when is Chaves vs Tondela played?
- Chaves vs Tondela is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.