Lens vs Lyon: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 6Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
The Footlab model makes Lens the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Lyon. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lens vs Lyon?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Lens (2,181) and Lyon (2,129).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lens have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Lyon have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Auxerre(home) | 5-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 1-0 | Trophée des Champions |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sunderland(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 3-1 | Como Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 0-0 | Como Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Toulouse(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sparta Praha(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Sparta Praha(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Lens win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Lyon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Lyon 0-4 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Lyon 2-2 Lens | Coupe de France |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Lens 0-1 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| May 4, 2025 | Lyon 1-2 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Lens 0-0 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Lyon 0-3 Lens | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Lens score 2.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lyon score 2.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Lyon | 2.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lens sit 2nd in Ligue 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and Lyon sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lens vs Lyon?
- The Footlab model makes Lens the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Lyon.
- Where and when is Lens vs Lyon played?
- Lens vs Lyon is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.