Lens vs Lyon: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 6Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
The Footlab AI model makes Lens the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Lyon. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lens wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lens vs Lyon?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Lens (2,170) and Lyon (2,157).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lens vs Lyon
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lens
3-4-2-1- 11O. Édouard
- 10F. Thauvin
- 27M. Cuisance
- 2R. Aguilar
- 21A. Haidara
- 22M. Skóraś
- 28J. Kadile
- 14M. Udol
- 32K. Antonio
- 20J. Todibo
- 40R. Risser
Known absences
A. SimaOut · Muscle injury
M. NawrockiOut · Injured
J. ChávezDoubtful · Thigh injury
S. BaidooDoubtful · Knee injury
Lyon
4-2-3-1- 17L. Openda
- 23T. Morton
- 8C. Tolisso
- 7E. Nuamah
- 2M. Bidstrup
- 10P. Šulc
- 20F. Bacher
- 13Z. Athekame
- 16Abner
- 21R. Kluivert
- 1D. Greif
Known absences
- M. NiakhatéOut · Muscle injury
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 11:20 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lens have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Lyon have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Monaco(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Le Mans(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Slavia Praha(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Lorient(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Strasbourg(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Anderlecht(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Paris FC(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Auxerre(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Lens wins, 2 draws, 1 Lyon win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Lyon 0-4 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Lyon 2-2 Lens | Coupe de France |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Lens 0-1 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| May 4, 2025 | Lyon 1-2 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Lens 0-0 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Lyon 0-3 Lens | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Lens score 2.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Lyon score 1.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Lyon | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lens sit 15th in Ligue 1 (4 points from 5 matches) and Lyon sit 2nd (11 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 11 |
| 15 | Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 4 |
A question about Lens vs Lyon?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lens vs Lyon?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lens the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Lyon.
- Where and when is Lens vs Lyon played?
- Lens vs Lyon is played on October 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.