Monaco vs Toulouse: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 6Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stade Louis-II, Monaco
The Footlab AI model makes Monaco the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Toulouse. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monaco vs Toulouse?
Monaco starts as the favourite with a 174-point Elo edge (2,159 vs 1,985).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Monaco vs Toulouse
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Monaco
4-2-3-1- 11M. Abline
- 8L. Camara
- 6D. Zakaria
- 10A. Golovin
- 17S. Idumbo-Muzambo
- 37E. Diop
- 15E. Dier
- 72Sadibou Sané
- 2Vanderson
- 20Flávio Nazinho
- 1L. Hrádecký
Known absences
Ansu FatiOut · Calf injury
Paris Josua BrunnerOut · Suspended
M. CoulibalyDoubtful · Muscle injury
Toulouse
4-2-3-1- 13J. Russell-Rowe
- 23C. Cásseres
- 8T. Jørgensen
- 37Y. Azizi
- 9S. Hidalgo
- 14N. Sigur
- 12C. Tapé
- 3M. McKenzie
- 22R. Messali
- 5S. Koumbassa
- 16G. Restes
Known absences
R. NicolaisenDoubtful · Calf injury
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 08:14 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monaco have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Toulouse have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Lens(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Strasbourg(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Marseille(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze(home) | 4-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | PAU(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lorient(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Lille(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Monaco wins, 2 draws, 1 Toulouse win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Toulouse 2-2 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Monaco 1-0 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Toulouse 1-1 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Monaco 2-0 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Monaco 1-2 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 20, 2023 | Toulouse 1-2 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Monaco score 2.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Toulouse score 1.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Toulouse | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Monaco sit 1st in Ligue 1 (13 points from 5 matches) and Toulouse sit 13th (5 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 13 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
A question about Monaco vs Toulouse?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monaco vs Toulouse?
- The Footlab AI model makes Monaco the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Toulouse.
- Where and when is Monaco vs Toulouse played?
- Monaco vs Toulouse is played on October 10, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stade Louis-II, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.