Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 6Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Parc des Princes, Paris
The Footlab AI model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 85%, against 11% for a draw and 4% for Le Mans. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans?
Paris Saint Germain is a heavy favourite: 2,307 Elo points against 1,960, a 347-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Paris Saint Germain
4-3-3- 7K. Kvaratskhelia
- 10O. Dembélé
- 14D. Doué
- 17Vitinha
- 87João Neves
- 8Fabián Ruiz
- 51W. Pacho
- 33W. Zaïre-Emery
- 5Marquinhos
- 25Nuno Mendes
- 39M. Safonov
Known absences
Ferran TorresOut · Ankle injury
Senny MayuluDoubtful · Groin injury
Le Mans
3-1-4-2- 14L. Mafouta
- 25D. Guèye
- 11A. Bourabaa
- 26R. Bamba
- 10J. Vercruysse
- 29L. Bretelle
- 22L. Calodat
- 5H. Voyer
- 17S. Yohou
- 15N. Boissé
- 98N. Kocik
Known absences
- D. SidibéOut · Suspended (yellow cards)
- E. ColasDoubtful · Injured
- L. BuadésDoubtful · Knock
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 11:39 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paris Saint Germain have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Le Mans have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava(home) | 6-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Lille(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Guingamp(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Lorient(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lens(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Nice(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Paris Saint Germain wins, 0 draws, 0 Le Mans wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2025 | Le Mans 0-2 Paris Saint Germain | Coupe de France |
| Jul 14, 2021 | Paris Saint Germain 4-0 Le Mans | Friendlies Clubs |
| Dec 18, 2019 | Le Mans 1-4 Paris Saint Germain | Coupe de la Ligue |
Last archived meeting: Le Mans vs Paris Saint Germain on Feb 4, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Paris Saint Germain score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Le Mans score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.5 | 1.2 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Le Mans | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paris Saint Germain sit 6th in Ligue 1 (8 points from 5 matches) and Le Mans sit 9th (6 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| 9 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 6 |
A question about Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans?
- The Footlab AI model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 85%, against 11% for a draw and 4% for Le Mans.
- Where and when is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans played?
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans is played on October 10, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Parc des Princes, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.