Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 6Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Parc des Princes, Paris
The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Le Mans. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans?
Paris Saint Germain is a heavy favourite: 2,299 Elo points against 1,937 — a 361-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paris Saint Germain have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Le Mans have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lens(away) | 0-1 | Trophée des Champions |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Mallorca(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Saumur(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | UNFP(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Angers(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Paris Saint Germain win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Le Mans win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2025 | Le Mans 0-2 Paris Saint Germain | Coupe de France |
| Jul 14, 2021 | Paris Saint Germain 4-0 Le Mans | Friendlies Clubs |
| Dec 18, 2019 | Le Mans 1-4 Paris Saint Germain | Coupe de la Ligue |
Last archived meeting: Le Mans vs Paris Saint Germain on Feb 4, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Paris Saint Germain score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Le Mans score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Le Mans | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Le Mans | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans?
- The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Le Mans.
- Where and when is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans played?
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Parc des Princes, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.