Libertad vs Independiente del Valle: prediction and stats
Liga ProRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja
The Footlab model makes Independiente del Valle the favourite at 70%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Libertad. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Libertad vs Independiente del Valle?
Independiente del Valle starts as the favourite with a 264-point Elo edge (2,010 vs 1,745).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Libertad have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Independiente del Valle have 15, 0 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Macara(home) | 1-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC(away) | 2-2 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Universidad Catolica(home) | 2-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Orense SC(home) | 3-0 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Mushuc Runa SC(away) | 2-0 | Liga Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leones del Norte(away) | 3-2 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Deportes Tolima(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Delfin SC(home) | 3-2 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 8, 2026 | LDU de Quito(away) | 2-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca(home) | 1-0 | Liga Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Libertad win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Independiente del Valle win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Independiente del Valle 2-3 Libertad | Liga Pro |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Independiente del Valle 1-1 Libertad | Liga Pro |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Libertad 1-3 Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Independiente del Valle 1-1 Libertad | Liga Pro |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Libertad 2-0 Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Libertad 1-1 Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
Last archived meeting: Independiente del Valle vs Libertad on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Libertad score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Independiente del Valle score 2.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertad | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Independiente del Valle | 2.7 | 0.7 | 9 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Libertad sit 7th in Liga Pro (37 points from 26 matches) and Independiente del Valle sit 1st (67 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 26 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 64 | 26 | 67 |
| 7 | Libertad | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 29 | 29 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Libertad vs Independiente del Valle?
- The Footlab model makes Independiente del Valle the favourite at 70%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Libertad.
- Where and when is Libertad vs Independiente del Valle played?
- Libertad vs Independiente del Valle is played on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, in the Liga Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.