Manta FC vs Aucas: prediction and stats
Liga ProRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Jocay, Manta
The Footlab model makes Aucas the favourite at 51%, against 28% for a draw and 21% for Manta FC. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manta FC vs Aucas?
Aucas starts as the favourite with a 200-point Elo edge (1,774 vs 1,574).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manta FC have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Aucas have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Universidad Catolica(away) | 1-5 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leones del Norte(home) | 0-2 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca(away) | 2-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mushuc Runa SC(home) | 1-2 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Independiente del Valle(away) | 0-1 | Copa Ecuador |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Delfin SC(away) | 1-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 17, 2026 | LDU de Quito(home) | 0-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 12, 2026 | La Unión(away) | 1-1 | Copa Ecuador |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leones del Norte(home) | 3-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Emelec(away) | 2-0 | Liga Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Manta FC win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Aucas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | Aucas 3-1 Manta FC | Liga Pro |
| Sep 16, 2025 | Manta FC 1-1 Aucas | Liga Pro |
| May 17, 2025 | Aucas 1-1 Manta FC | Liga Pro |
| Aug 22, 2021 | Aucas 3-0 Manta FC | Liga Pro |
| Mar 21, 2021 | Manta FC 1-1 Aucas | Liga Pro |
| Oct 29, 2017 | Aucas 2-0 Manta FC | Liga Pro Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Manta FC score 0.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Aucas score 1.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manta FC | 0.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Aucas | 1.2 | 1.0 | 8 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manta FC sit 16th in Liga Pro (17 points from 26 matches) and Aucas sit 2nd (44 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aucas | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 26 | 44 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 37 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manta FC vs Aucas?
- The Footlab model makes Aucas the favourite at 51%, against 28% for a draw and 21% for Manta FC.
- Where and when is Manta FC vs Aucas played?
- Manta FC vs Aucas is played on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Jocay, in the Liga Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.