Lille vs Bayern München: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 5Kick-off on November 25, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 69%, against 18% for a draw and 13% for Lille. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lille vs Bayern München?
Bayern München is a heavy favourite: 2,535 Elo points against 2,121, a 414-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lille vs Bayern München
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lille
4-2-3-1- 18A. Ueda
- 6N. Bentaleb
- 10H. Haraldsson
- 17N. Mukau
- 7D. Bakwa
- 21B. André
- 4Alexsandro Ribeiro
- 15R. Perraud
- 3N. Ngoy
- 38M. Goffi
- 1B. Özer
Bayern München
4-2-3-1- 9H. Kane
- 17M. Olise
- 6J. Kimmich
- 14L. Díaz
- 42L. Karl
- 8T. Bischof
- 4J. Tah
- 27K. Laimer
- 11N. Brown
- 3Kim Min-Jae
- 40J. Urbig
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:33 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lille have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Bayern München have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Zulte Waregem(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Nice(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Estac Troyes(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Viking(away) | 3-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | FC Augsburg(away) | 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Union Berlin(home) | 7-0 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | SV Elversberg(away) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(home) | 5-0 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Lille wins, 0 draws, 2 Bayern München wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2012 | Bayern München 6-1 Lille | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 23, 2012 | Lille 0-1 Bayern München | UEFA Champions League |
Last archived meeting: Bayern München vs Lille on Nov 7, 2012
How many goals should we expect?
Lille score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Bayern München score 3.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 1.7 | 1.3 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Bayern München | 3.0 | 1.1 | 4 | 11/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lille sit 23rd in UEFA Champions League (0 points from 1 match) and Bayern München sit 3rd (3 points from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bayern München | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 23 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
A question about Lille vs Bayern München?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lille vs Bayern München?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 69%, against 18% for a draw and 13% for Lille.
- Where and when is Lille vs Bayern München played?
- Lille vs Bayern München is played on November 25, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.