Manchester City vs Napoli: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 5Kick-off on November 24, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Etihad Stadium, Manchester
The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 67%, against 18% for a draw and 15% for Napoli. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 5,124 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchester City vs Napoli?
Manchester City starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (2,295 vs 2,153).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Manchester City vs Napoli
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Manchester City
4-2-3-1- 9E. Haaland
- 17E. Fernández
- 5E. Anderson
- 10R. Cherki
- 7I. Ndiaye
- 47P. Foden
- 45A. Khusanov
- 6M. Guéhi
- 3Rúben Dias
- 27Matheus Nunes
- 1G. Donnarumma
Napoli
3-4-1-2- 11K. De Bruyne
- 19R. Højlund
- 8S. McTominay
- 21M. Politano
- 99A. Zambo Anguissa
- 6B. Gilmour
- 26A. Vergara
- 16Rafa Marín
- 13Amir Rrahmani
- 31S. Beukema
- 1A. Meret
Computed on November 8, 2026 at 10:17 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchester City have 10 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats; Napoli have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Nov 4, 2026 | RB Leipzig(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Aston Villa(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Lazio(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Nov 4, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Monza(away) | 4-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 24, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 3-3 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Manchester City wins, 1 draw, 1 Napoli win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2025 | Manchester City 2-0 Napoli | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 1, 2017 | Napoli 2-4 Manchester City | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2017 | Manchester City 2-1 Napoli | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 22, 2011 | Napoli 2-1 Manchester City | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 14, 2011 | Manchester City 1-1 Napoli | UEFA Champions League |
Last archived meeting: Manchester City vs Napoli on Sep 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Manchester City score 2.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Napoli score 1.6 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 2.5 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Napoli | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchester City sit 7th in UEFA Champions League (9 points from 4 matches) and Napoli sit 27th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Manchester City | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 9 |
| 27 | Napoli | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 3 |
A question about Manchester City vs Napoli?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchester City vs Napoli?
- The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 67%, against 18% for a draw and 15% for Napoli.
- Where and when is Manchester City vs Napoli played?
- Manchester City vs Napoli is played on November 24, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Etihad Stadium, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.