Where and when is Hamburger SV vs Bayern München played?

Hamburger SV vs Bayern München is played on November 28, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 80% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Hamburger SV vs Bayern München: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Hamburger SV

Bayern München

The Footlab model makes Bayern München the favourite at 72%, against 15% for a draw and 13% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 1-3.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Hamburger SV vs Bayern München?

Bayern München is a heavy favourite: 2,527 Elo points against 2,057 — a 470-point gap.

Hamburger SV win13 %

Draw15 %

Bayern München win72 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hamburger SV have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Bayern München have 11, 2 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Hamburger SV
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 24, 2026	Verl(away)	3-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Toulouse(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Lille(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Everton(home)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Rapid Vienna(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs

Bayern München
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Borussia Dortmund(away)	2-1	Super Cup
Aug 18, 2026	1. FC Heidenheim(away)	4-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	RB Leipzig(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 7, 2026	Aston Villa(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 4, 2026	Jeju United FC(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Hamburger SV win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Bayern München win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jan 31, 2026	Hamburger SV 2-2 Bayern München	Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2025	Bayern München 5-0 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Mar 10, 2018	Bayern München 6-0 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Oct 21, 2017	Hamburger SV 0-1 Bayern München	Bundesliga
Feb 25, 2017	Bayern München 8-0 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Sep 24, 2016	Hamburger SV 0-1 Bayern München	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Hamburger SV vs Bayern München on Jan 31, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Hamburger SV score 1.6 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Bayern München score 2.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 80% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV	1.6	1.8	1	13/15	12/15
Bayern München	2.7	1.5	3	12/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Hamburger SV sit 13th in Bundesliga (38 points from 34 matches) and Bayern München sit 1st (89 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern München	34	28	5	1	122	36	89
13	Hamburger SV	34	9	11	14	40	54	38

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Hamburger SV vs Bayern München?: The Footlab model makes Bayern München the favourite at 72%, against 15% for a draw and 13% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is Hamburger SV vs Bayern München played?: Hamburger SV vs Bayern München is played on November 28, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 80% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.