Match

Hamburger SV vs Bayern München: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Hamburger SVBayern München

The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 79%, against 13% for a draw and 8% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 0-3.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,800 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Hamburger SV vs Bayern München?

Bayern München is a heavy favourite: 2,561 Elo points against 2,120, a 441-point gap.

8%13%79%
Hamburger SV winDrawBayern München win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Hamburger SV vs Bayern München

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Hamburger SV

3-4-2-1
  1. 15Y. Poulsen
  1. 3D. Møller Wolfe
  2. 20Fábio Vieira
  3. 5M. Adeline
  4. 37L. Lemke
  5. 21N. Remberg
  6. 6A. Sambi Lokonga
  1. 24N. Capaldo
  2. 33S. Bornauw
  3. 17W. Omari
  1. 1Daniel Heuer Fernandes

Bayern München

4-2-3-1
  1. 9H. Kane
  1. 17M. Olise
  2. 6J. Kimmich
  3. 14L. Díaz
  4. 45A. Pavlović
  5. 34I. Saibari
  1. 2D. Upamecano
  2. 11N. Brown
  3. 3Kim Min-Jae
  4. 27K. Laimer
  1. 40J. Urbig

Computed on October 19, 2026 at 08:40 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hamburger SV have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Bayern München have 11, 3 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Hamburger SV
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026VfB Stuttgart(home)1-0Bundesliga
Oct 10, 20261899 Hoffenheim(away)3-2Bundesliga
Oct 4, 2026FC Copenhagen(home)2-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 20261. FC Köln(home)2-1Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2026RB Leipzig(away)0-5Bundesliga
Bayern München
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026RB Leipzig(home)6-1Bundesliga
Oct 13, 2026Viking(away)3-3UEFA Champions League
Oct 10, 2026FC Augsburg(away)2-2Bundesliga
Sep 18, 2026Union Berlin(home)7-0Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2026SV Elversberg(away)2-1Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Hamburger SV wins, 1 draw, 5 Bayern München wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Jan 31, 2026Hamburger SV 2-2 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
Sep 13, 2025Bayern München 5-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Mar 10, 2018Bayern München 6-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Oct 21, 2017Hamburger SV 0-1 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
Feb 25, 2017Bayern München 8-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Sep 24, 2016Hamburger SV 0-1 Bayern MünchenBundesliga

Last archived meeting: Hamburger SV vs Bayern München on Jan 31, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Hamburger SV score 1.6 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Bayern München score 3.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV1.61.839/1511/15
Bayern München3.21.1312/1514/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Hamburger SV sit 9th in Bundesliga (9 points from 6 matches) and Bayern München sit 1st (14 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Bayern München642022514
9Hamburger SV63036159

A question about Hamburger SV vs Bayern München?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Hamburger SV vs Bayern München?
The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 79%, against 13% for a draw and 8% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is Hamburger SV vs Bayern München played?
Hamburger SV vs Bayern München is played on November 28, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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