Lillestrom vs Valerenga: prediction and stats
EliteserienRegular Season - 21Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Åråsen Stadion, Kjeller
The Footlab model makes Lillestrom the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for Valerenga. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lillestrom vs Valerenga?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Lillestrom (2,026) and Valerenga (1,942).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lillestrom have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Valerenga have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | KFUM Oslo(away) | 1-1 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rosenborg(home) | 0-2 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(away) | 0-4 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Viking(home) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Christiania BK(away) | 7-2 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Aalesund(away) | 5-5 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(home) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ham-Kam(home) | 0-3 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Brann(away) | 3-2 | Eliteserien |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Lillestrom win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Valerenga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Valerenga 0-2 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Lillestrom 2-0 Valerenga | Eliteserien |
| May 1, 2023 | Valerenga 3-4 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| Sep 4, 2022 | Valerenga 3-1 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| May 25, 2022 | Lillestrom 2-0 Valerenga | Eliteserien |
| Nov 7, 2021 | Lillestrom 0-0 Valerenga | Eliteserien |
Last archived meeting: Valerenga vs Lillestrom on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lillestrom score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Valerenga score 2.1 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Valerenga | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lillestrom sit 5th in Eliteserien (26 points from 17 matches) and Valerenga sit 11th (21 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lillestrom | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 21 | 26 |
| 11 | Valerenga | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 34 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lillestrom vs Valerenga?
- The Footlab model makes Lillestrom the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for Valerenga.
- Where and when is Lillestrom vs Valerenga played?
- Lillestrom vs Valerenga is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Åråsen Stadion, in the Eliteserien.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.