Rosenborg vs Tromso: prediction and stats
EliteserienRegular Season - 21Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Lerkendal Stadion, Trondheim
The Footlab model makes Tromso the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Rosenborg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rosenborg vs Tromso?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Rosenborg (1,993) and Tromso (2,067).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rosenborg have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Tromso have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | National Kameratene(away) | 9-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Viking(home) | 2-1 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Lillestrom(away) | 2-0 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Brann(away) | 2-3 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Fredrikstad(home) | 4-0 | Eliteserien |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ulfstind(away) | 5-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Molde(away) | 2-3 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 13, 2026 | CFR 1907 Cluj(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | CFR 1907 Cluj(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Rosenborg win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Tromso win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Tromso 2-0 Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Tromso 1-0 Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Rosenborg 4-1 Tromso | Eliteserien |
| Aug 4, 2024 | Rosenborg 1-0 Tromso | Eliteserien |
| May 20, 2024 | Tromso 3-2 Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Rosenborg 3-0 Tromso | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Rosenborg score 2.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Tromso score 2.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenborg | 2.3 | 1.4 | 6 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
| Tromso | 2.2 | 1.2 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rosenborg sit 7th in Eliteserien (24 points from 17 matches) and Tromso sit 3rd (34 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tromso | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 34 |
| 7 | Rosenborg | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 22 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rosenborg vs Tromso?
- The Footlab model makes Tromso the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Rosenborg.
- Where and when is Rosenborg vs Tromso played?
- Rosenborg vs Tromso is played on September 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Lerkendal Stadion, in the Eliteserien.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.