Llantwit Major vs Newport City: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 13Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Windmill Ground, Llantwit Major
The Footlab model makes Newport City the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Llantwit Major. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Llantwit Major vs Newport City?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Llantwit Major (1,485) and Newport City (1,558).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Llantwit Major have 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 defeats; Newport City have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 0-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Cambrian & Clydach(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(away) | 4-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Llantwit Major win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Newport City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2026 | Newport City 2-1 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Llantwit Major 2-2 Newport City | FAW Championship |
| Mar 28, 2025 | Newport City 2-1 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Llantwit Major 1-1 Newport City | FAW Championship |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Llantwit Major 2-0 Newport City | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Newport City vs Llantwit Major on Feb 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Llantwit Major score 1.5 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Newport City score 1.3 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llantwit Major | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Newport City | 1.3 | 2.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Llantwit Major sit 16th in FAW Championship (0 points from 4 matches) and Newport City sit 7th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Newport City | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Llantwit Major vs Newport City?
- The Footlab model makes Newport City the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Llantwit Major.
- Where and when is Llantwit Major vs Newport City played?
- Llantwit Major vs Newport City is played on October 31, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Windmill Ground, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 30, 2026Pontypridd Townvsllanelli AFC
- Oct 30, 2026Caerphilly AthleticvsCaerau (Ely)
- Oct 31, 2026Cardiff DraconiansvsAfan Lido
- Oct 31, 2026Treowen StarsvsBaglan Dragons
- Oct 31, 2026Pontardawe TownvsCarmarthen Town
- Oct 31, 2026Ynyshir AlbionsvsSwansea University
- Oct 31, 2026Aberystwyth TownvsTrethomas Bluebirds