Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad
The Footlab model makes Ludogorets the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Cherno More Varna. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna?
Ludogorets starts as the favourite with a 204-point Elo edge (1,987 vs 1,783).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ludogorets have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Cherno More Varna have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 3-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-4 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ludogorets(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 0-3 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ludogorets win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Cherno More Varna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cherno More Varna 2-3 Ludogorets | First League |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Ludogorets 0-0 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 0-0 Ludogorets | First League |
| May 13, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 2-0 Ludogorets | First League |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Ludogorets 2-0 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 1-1 Ludogorets | First League |
Last archived meeting: Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets on Aug 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ludogorets score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Cherno More Varna score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Cherno More Varna | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ludogorets sit 1st in First League (16 points from 6 matches) and Cherno More Varna sit 10th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 16 |
| 10 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna?
- The Footlab model makes Ludogorets the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Cherno More Varna.
- Where and when is Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna played?
- Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Huvepharma Arena, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.