Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad
The Footlab AI model makes Ludogorets the favourite at 71%, against 19% for a draw and 10% for Cherno More Varna. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.9% of the 5,140 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna?
Ludogorets starts as the favourite with a 225-point Elo edge (1,989 vs 1,764).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ludogorets
4-2-3-1- 12Rwan Cruz
- 23Deroy Duarte
- 6I. Zhelizko
- 14P. Stanić
- 17Son
- 20A. Camara
- 42S. Shishkov
- 15E. Kurtulus
- 2J. Andersson
- 4Hossam Abdelmaguid
- 39H. Bonmann
Cherno More Varna
4-2-3-1- 10Celso Sidney
- 71V. Panayotov
- 24David Teles
- 29B. Beyhan
- 99I. Bounaas
- 11M. Achi
- 37V. Kerchev
- 50E. Tombak
- 5L. Squadrone
- 3Z. Atanasov
- 81K. Tomov
Computed on November 9, 2026 at 05:40 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ludogorets have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat; Cherno More Varna have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 2-2 | First League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Oct 26, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Beroe(away) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(home) | 5-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 0-1 | Pro Cup |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Marek(away) | 3-0 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Ludogorets wins, 2 draws, 1 Cherno More Varna win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Ludogorets 5-0 Cherno More Varna | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cherno More Varna 2-3 Ludogorets | First League |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Ludogorets 0-0 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 0-0 Ludogorets | First League |
| May 13, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 2-0 Ludogorets | First League |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Ludogorets 2-0 Cherno More Varna | First League |
Last archived meeting: Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna on Oct 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ludogorets score 2.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Cherno More Varna score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets | 2.4 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Cherno More Varna | 1.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ludogorets sit 3rd in First League (30 points from 13 matches) and Cherno More Varna sit 9th (13 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ludogorets | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 11 | 30 |
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 13 |
A question about Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ludogorets the favourite at 71%, against 19% for a draw and 10% for Cherno More Varna.
- Where and when is Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna played?
- Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Huvepharma Arena, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.