Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Spartak, Varna
The Footlab model makes Spartak Varna the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Lokomotiv Sofia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Spartak Varna (1,714) and Lokomotiv Sofia (1,721).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spartak Varna have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Lokomotiv Sofia have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-6 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(away) | 1-3 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-3 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Levski Sofia(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 1-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Spartak Varna win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Lokomotiv Sofia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Spartak Varna 3-0 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Spartak Varna 2-2 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Lokomotiv Sofia 0-0 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Mar 28, 2025 | Lokomotiv Sofia 2-1 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Spartak Varna 3-2 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Nov 18, 2023 | Lokomotiv Sofia 0-0 Spartak Varna | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia on May 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Spartak Varna score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lokomotiv Sofia score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Varna | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Spartak Varna sit 7th in First League (7 points from 6 matches) and Lokomotiv Sofia sit 13th (2 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
- The Footlab model makes Spartak Varna the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Lokomotiv Sofia.
- Where and when is Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia played?
- Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Spartak, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.