Where and when is Lucchese vs Ternana played?

Lucchese vs Ternana is played on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Porta Elisa, in the Serie D - Girone E.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Lucchese vs Ternana: prediction and stats

Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 7Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Porta Elisa, Lucca

Lucchese

Ternana

The Footlab model makes Ternana the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Lucchese. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Lucchese vs Ternana?

Ternana starts as the favourite with a 125-point Elo edge (1,861 vs 1,736).

Lucchese win36 %

Draw28 %

Ternana win37 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lucchese have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Ternana have 5, 5 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Lucchese
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 17, 2025	Sestri Levante(home)	1-0	Serie C - Relegation - Play-offs
May 10, 2025	Sestri Levante(away)	1-2	Serie C - Relegation - Play-offs
Apr 27, 2025	Torres(home)	3-2	Serie C - Girone B
Apr 23, 2025	Arezzo(away)	1-4	Serie C - Girone B
Apr 13, 2025	Vis Pesaro(home)	1-0	Serie C - Girone B

Ternana
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Pianese(away)	1-1	Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs
Apr 26, 2026	Pianese(home)	1-3	Serie C - Girone B
Apr 18, 2026	Bra(away)	2-1	Serie C - Girone B
Apr 12, 2026	Perugia(home)	2-2	Serie C - Girone B
Apr 8, 2026	Juventus U23(away)	1-2	Serie C - Girone B

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Lucchese win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Ternana win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 30, 2025	Lucchese 4-1 Ternana	Serie C - Girone B
Nov 17, 2024	Ternana 5-0 Lucchese	Serie C - Girone B

Last archived meeting: Lucchese vs Ternana on Mar 30, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Lucchese score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Ternana score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Lucchese	1.7	1.6	4	11/15	9/15
Ternana	1.5	1.4	2	11/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Lucchese vs Ternana?: The Footlab model makes Ternana the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Lucchese.
Where and when is Lucchese vs Ternana played?: Lucchese vs Ternana is played on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Porta Elisa, in the Serie D - Girone E.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.