Macaé vs Duque de Caxias: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 9Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Claúdio Moacir de Azevedo, Macaé, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Macaé the favourite at 39%, against 34% for a draw and 27% for Duque de Caxias. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Macaé vs Duque de Caxias?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Macaé (1,552) and Duque de Caxias (1,621).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Macaé have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Duque de Caxias have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | Americano Campos(away) | 1-2 | Copa Rio |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Americano Campos(home) | 0-0 | Copa Rio |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Goytacaz(away) | 1-4 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Goytacaz(home) | 1-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Santa Cruz RJ(away) | 2-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | Olaria(away) | 0-4 | Copa Rio |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Olaria(home) | 0-2 | Copa Rio |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Bonsucesso(away) | 0-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Bonsucesso(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Carapebus(away) | 2-0 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Macaé win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Duque de Caxias win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2023 | Macaé 3-0 Duque de Caxias | Carioca - 2 |
| Aug 23, 2023 | Macaé 2-0 Duque de Caxias | Copa Rio |
| Aug 16, 2023 | Duque de Caxias 2-0 Macaé | Copa Rio |
| Jul 17, 2021 | Duque de Caxias 0-0 Macaé | Carioca A2 |
| Sep 20, 2014 | Duque de Caxias 1-2 Macaé | Serie C |
| Jul 19, 2014 | Macaé 1-0 Duque de Caxias | Serie C |
Last archived meeting: Macaé vs Duque de Caxias on Sep 18, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Macaé score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Duque de Caxias score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 28% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macaé | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Duque de Caxias | 0.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Duque de Caxias | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Macaé vs Duque de Caxias?
- The Footlab model makes Macaé the favourite at 39%, against 34% for a draw and 27% for Duque de Caxias.
- Where and when is Macaé vs Duque de Caxias played?
- Macaé vs Duque de Caxias is played on October 24, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Claúdio Moacir de Azevedo, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 28% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.