Serrano RJ vs Nova Cidade: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 9Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Atílio Marotti, Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab AI model makes Serrano RJ the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Nova Cidade. The most likely score is 1-1. If Serrano RJ wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Serrano RJ vs Nova Cidade?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Serrano RJ (1,505) and Nova Cidade (1,432).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Serrano RJ vs Nova Cidade
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Serrano RJ
Not enough data to predict the Serrano RJ lineup.
Nova Cidade
Not enough data to predict the Nova Cidade lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Serrano RJ have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Nova Cidade have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Macaé(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Artsul(away) | 4-3 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Campo Grande(home) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Audax Rio(away) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Goytacaz(home) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Campo Grande(home) | 3-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Audax Rio(away) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Goytacaz(home) | 1-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Niteroiense(away) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | São Cristóvão RJ(home) | 2-2 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Serrano RJ wins, 0 draws, 2 Nova Cidade wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | Serrano RJ 0-1 Nova Cidade | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Nova Cidade 3-2 Serrano RJ | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Serrano RJ 3-0 Nova Cidade | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 28, 2022 | Nova Cidade 2-3 Serrano RJ | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 6, 2021 | Nova Cidade 1-2 Serrano RJ | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2020 | Serrano RJ 4-1 Nova Cidade | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Serrano RJ vs Nova Cidade on Oct 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Serrano RJ score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Nova Cidade score 0.9 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serrano RJ | 0.9 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Nova Cidade | 0.9 | 0.8 | 8 | 3/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Serrano RJ sit 3rd in Carioca - 2 (11 points from 6 matches) and Nova Cidade sit 10th (5 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 11 |
| 10 | Nova Cidade | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
A question about Serrano RJ vs Nova Cidade?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Serrano RJ vs Nova Cidade?
- The Footlab AI model makes Serrano RJ the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Nova Cidade.
- Where and when is Serrano RJ vs Nova Cidade played?
- Serrano RJ vs Nova Cidade is played on October 24, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Atílio Marotti, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.