Petrópolis vs Carapebus: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 9Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Atílio Marotti, Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Petrópolis the favourite at 41%, against 32% for a draw and 27% for Carapebus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Petrópolis vs Carapebus?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Petrópolis (1,610) and Carapebus (1,559).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Petrópolis have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Carapebus have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Campo Grande(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Artsul(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Bonsucesso(away) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Serrano RJ(away) | 1-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | São Cristóvão RJ(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Duque de Caxias(home) | 0-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Bonsucesso(home) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Campo Grande(away) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Artsul(away) | 1-3 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Serrano RJ(home) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Petrópolis win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Carapebus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | Petrópolis 3-0 Carapebus | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Petrópolis vs Carapebus on Oct 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Petrópolis score 0.8 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Carapebus score 0.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petrópolis | 0.8 | 0.9 | 7 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Carapebus | 0.5 | 1.3 | 6 | 3/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Petrópolis sit 6th in Carioca - 2 (16 points from 11 matches) and Carapebus sit 10th (12 points from 11 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Petrópolis | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 16 |
| 10 | Carapebus | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Petrópolis vs Carapebus?
- The Footlab model makes Petrópolis the favourite at 41%, against 32% for a draw and 27% for Carapebus.
- Where and when is Petrópolis vs Carapebus played?
- Petrópolis vs Carapebus is played on October 24, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Atílio Marotti, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.