Match

Ovarense vs Machico: prediction and stats

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 25Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Marques da Silva, Ovar

OvarenseMachico

The Footlab AI model makes Ovarense the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Machico. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ovarense wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,793 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Ovarense vs Machico?

A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Ovarense (1,868) and Machico (1,883).

41%30%29%
Ovarense winDrawMachico win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Ovarense vs Machico

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Ovarense

Not enough data to predict the Ovarense lineup.

Machico

Not enough data to predict the Machico lineup.

Computed on October 19, 2026 at 07:33 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 10 matches in all competitions, Ovarense have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Machico have 8, 5 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Ovarense
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Beira-Mar(home)2-2Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B
Sep 20, 2026Os Marialvas(home)0-1Taça de Portugal
Sep 6, 2026Sousense(home)2-0Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B
Aug 23, 2026União Lamas(home)1-0Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B
Aug 16, 2026Castro Daire(away)2-0Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B
Machico
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Florgrade(home)4-0Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B
Sep 13, 2026Alpendorada(away)2-1Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B
Sep 4, 2026Salgueiros(away)1-1Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B
Aug 30, 2026Camacha(home)2-2Taça de Portugal
Aug 23, 2026Beira-Mar(away)2-0Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B

How many goals should we expect?

Ovarense score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 10; Machico score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Ovarense2.10.945/94/9
Machico1.40.797/157/15

Over the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Ovarense sit 1st in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (12 points from 4 matches) and Machico sit 2nd (11 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Ovarense44008012
2Machico53209211

A question about Ovarense vs Machico?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Ovarense vs Machico?
The Footlab AI model makes Ovarense the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Machico.
Where and when is Ovarense vs Machico played?
Ovarense vs Machico is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Marques da Silva, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Ovarense and Machico

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