Mafra vs Lusitano Évora 1911: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 12Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra
The Footlab model makes Mafra the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Lusitano Évora 1911. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mafra vs Lusitano Évora 1911?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Mafra (1,919) and Lusitano Évora 1911 (1,937).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mafra have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Lusitano Évora 1911 have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlético CP(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 5-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | FC Fredericia(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Mafra(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Caldas(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atlético CP(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Mafra win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Lusitano Évora 1911 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911 2-1 Mafra | Liga 3 |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Mafra 1-1 Lusitano Évora 1911 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Lusitano Évora 1911 4-1 Mafra | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Mafra on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mafra score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lusitano Évora 1911 score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mafra | 1.7 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Lusitano Évora 1911 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mafra sit 7th in Liga 3 (4 points from 3 matches) and Lusitano Évora 1911 sit 4th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Mafra | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mafra vs Lusitano Évora 1911?
- The Footlab model makes Mafra the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Lusitano Évora 1911.
- Where and when is Mafra vs Lusitano Évora 1911 played?
- Mafra vs Lusitano Évora 1911 is played on December 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Mafra, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.