Varzim vs Pacos Ferreira: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 12Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Varzim Sport Club, Póvoa de Varzim
The Footlab AI model makes Pacos Ferreira the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Varzim. The most likely score is 1-1. If Pacos Ferreira wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,500 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Varzim vs Pacos Ferreira?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Varzim (1,917) and Pacos Ferreira (1,857).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Varzim vs Pacos Ferreira
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Varzim
4-3-3- 95Valentim Sousa
- 25J. Couto
- 17L. Filipe
- 27Martim Boloto
- 55D. Rebelo
- 10M. Moreno Tavares Cunha
- 26Rúben Fernandes
- 19A. Morais Guedes
- 4Kauã Oliveira
- 3P. Nuno
- 49P. Costa
Pacos Ferreira
4-3-3- 99Platiny
- 7João Pedro
- 96Miguel Falé
- 8Nuno Cunha
- 19Tomás Castro
- 6Tomás Podstawski
- 33Rafael Vieira
- 22Junio Wesley
- 15Leandro Dias
- 85D. Castro
- 1Rafa
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 08:58 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Varzim have 5 wins, 1 draw and 9 defeats; Pacos Ferreira have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Leça(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Guimaraes B(home) | 2-4 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | São João Ver(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(away) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Vianense(home) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Fafe(away) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Leça(home) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Guimaraes B(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Vianense(away) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Varzim win, 0 draws, 2 Pacos Ferreira wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pacos Ferreira 1-4 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Feb 10, 2019 | Pacos Ferreira 1-0 Varzim | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 2, 2018 | Varzim 0-1 Pacos Ferreira | Segunda Liga |
Last archived meeting: Pacos Ferreira vs Varzim on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Varzim score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Pacos Ferreira score 0.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varzim | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Pacos Ferreira | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Varzim sit 8th in Liga 3 (9 points from 8 matches) and Pacos Ferreira sit 9th (8 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Varzim | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 9 |
| 9 | Pacos Ferreira | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 8 |
A question about Varzim vs Pacos Ferreira?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Varzim vs Pacos Ferreira?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pacos Ferreira the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Varzim.
- Where and when is Varzim vs Pacos Ferreira played?
- Varzim vs Pacos Ferreira is played on December 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Varzim Sport Club, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.