Mafra vs Santa Clara: prediction and stats
Taça de PortugalRound of 64Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra
The Footlab AI model makes Santa Clara the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Mafra. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mafra vs Santa Clara?
Santa Clara starts as the favourite with a 182-point Elo edge (2,176 vs 1,994).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mafra vs Santa Clara
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mafra
4-3-3- 7R. Matos
- 9Mamor Niang
- 11Leandro Alves
- 46Braima Samú
- 37A. Ba
- 6Y. Maïga
- 5Gonçalo Cardoso
- 2M. Camara
- 3Kauê Alves
- 13Celso Raposo
- 33Pedro Silva
Santa Clara
4-3-3- 9Gonçalo Paciência
- 70Vinícius Lopes
- 10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
- 6Pedro Ferreira
- 8José Luís Rocha Tavares
- 20Tiago Ribeiro
- 5Guilherme Romão
- 4Pedro Pacheco
- 21Emanuel Fernandes
- 42Lucas Soares
- 1Lucas França
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 12:10 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mafra have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Santa Clara have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tirsense(home) | 2-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Oliveirense(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Covilha(home) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(away) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Mafra win, 0 draws, 1 Santa Clara win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2024 | Mafra 0-2 Santa Clara | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 6, 2024 | Santa Clara 0-1 Mafra | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Mafra score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Clara score 1.7 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mafra | 1.9 | 1.3 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Santa Clara | 1.7 | 0.5 | 9 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Mafra vs Santa Clara?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mafra vs Santa Clara?
- The Footlab AI model makes Santa Clara the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Mafra.
- Where and when is Mafra vs Santa Clara played?
- Mafra vs Santa Clara is played on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Mafra, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.