Malaga City vs Motril: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 3Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal El Pozuelo, Torremolinos
The Footlab model makes Motril the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Malaga City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malaga City vs Motril?
Motril starts as the favourite with a 257-point Elo edge (1,850 vs 1,593).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malaga City have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Motril have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 4, 2025 | Polideportivo Almería(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 1, 2025 | Real Jaén(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Mancha Real(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Mijas Las Lagunas(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 31, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 24, 2026 | Churriana Vega(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 17, 2026 | Churriana Vega(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 10, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Malaga City win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Motril win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2025 | Motril 3-0 Malaga City | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Malaga City 1-2 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Malaga City 0-1 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Motril 1-2 Malaga City | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Jan 22, 2023 | Motril 0-1 Malaga City | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 25, 2022 | Malaga City 1-2 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
How many goals should we expect?
Malaga City score 1.0 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Motril score 1.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga City | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Motril | 1.2 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Motril | 34 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 55 | 29 | 65 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malaga City vs Motril?
- The Footlab model makes Motril the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Malaga City.
- Where and when is Malaga City vs Motril played?
- Malaga City vs Motril is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal El Pozuelo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 20, 2026Atlético PorcunavsGranada II
- Sep 20, 2026Ciudad de TorredonjimenovsArenas Armilla
- Sep 20, 2026Huétor VegavsMarbelli
- Sep 20, 2026AlhaurinovsChurriana Vega
- Sep 20, 2026Torre del MarvsMelilla
- Sep 20, 2026UD San PedrovsAlmería II
- Sep 20, 2026Atletico de MarbellavsMancha Real
- Sep 20, 2026CantoriavsMálaga II