Malaga vs Celta Vigo: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 36Kick-off on May 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga
The Footlab AI model makes Malaga the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Celta Vigo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Malaga wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malaga vs Celta Vigo?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Malaga (2,005) and Celta Vigo (2,073).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Malaga vs Celta Vigo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Malaga
4-1-4-1- 9Chupe
- 10David Larrubia
- 22Dani Lorenzo
- 11Joaquín Muñoz
- 18Pablo Martínez
- 14Rafa Rodríguez
- 15Ángel Recio
- 31Rafita
- 3Puga
- 12José Salinas
- 1Alfonso Herrero
Celta Vigo
3-4-3- 9Ferran Jutglà
- 23Hugo Álvarez
- 11Pablo Durán
- 6I. Moriba
- 17Javi Rueda
- 22Javi Galán
- 8Miguel Román
- 18Yoel Lago
- 15Álvaro Núñez
- 3Marcos Alonso
- 13I. Radu
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 05:01 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malaga have 2 wins, 8 draws and 5 defeats; Celta Vigo have 4, 8 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Levante(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Elche(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 5-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Malaga wins, 2 draws, 2 Celta Vigo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Celta Vigo 1-1 Malaga | La Liga |
| Mar 18, 2018 | Celta Vigo 0-0 Malaga | La Liga |
| Oct 29, 2017 | Malaga 2-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| May 7, 2017 | Malaga 3-0 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Jan 8, 2017 | Celta Vigo 3-1 Malaga | La Liga |
| May 8, 2016 | Celta Vigo 1-0 Malaga | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Malaga score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Celta Vigo score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Celta Vigo | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Malaga sit 20th in La Liga (4 points from 8 matches) and Celta Vigo sit 9th (8 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Malaga vs Celta Vigo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malaga vs Celta Vigo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Malaga the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Celta Vigo.
- Where and when is Malaga vs Celta Vigo played?
- Malaga vs Celta Vigo is played on May 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Rosaleda, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.